Amador County Economic Forecast
1
A scenic area known for its Gold Rush beginnings,
Amador County also thrived during the deep-rock mining
era of the early 1900s. Today, Amador County is emerg-
ing as a premium wine growing region and as a popular
tourist destination.
For January 2003, the population of Amador County
was estimated at 36,500 people, an increase of 500 new
residents over the 2002 population. The net gain in popula-
tion is directly attributable to in-migration, since the natural
increase is negative.
The countyʼs annual average unemployment rate for
2002 was 4.4 percent, which was signifi cantly lower than
the stateʼs unemployment rate of 6.3 percent for the same
year. Amador Countyʼs annual average unemployment rate
had been steadily declining since 1996, until last year.
According to the 2002 annual average employment
statistics, government, services, and retail trade are the
largest industries in Amador County. Government accounts
for 39 percent of the countyʼs total employment with a ma-
jority of the jobs in local government. Services provide 21
percent of the total employment. Retail trade accounts for
21 percent of Amadorʼs employment. The fastest grow-
ing sector over the next 10 years will likely be services,
followed by the public sector and retail trade.
Forecast Highlights
• Non-farm employment growth averages 3.8 percent per
year between 2003 and 2008. Employment in farming
rises an average of 1.9 percent per year over the same
time period.
• The government sector is forecast to add nearly 1,500
new jobs over the next 5 years. Services will contribute
nearly 400 new positions, and retail trade is forecast
to increase by nearly 600 new jobs.
• Population growth accelerates from the average per
year rate of 1.1 percent between 1997 and 2002, to 1.6
percent per year between 2003 and 2008. The fore-
cast calls for an increase in net migration, due to the
expansion of the business economy in manufacturing
and government. Net new immigrants number 700 on
average per year.
• Real per capita income is projected to increase 1.2
percent per year over the next 5 years. The older age
populations in the county and the expansion of the
business economy contribute to consistently positive
real income growth during the decade.
• An average of 300 new residential units are forecast
per year over the next 5 years. This rate of building
appears adequate to meet the demand for housing in the
county. Infl ation-adjusted housing prices are forecast
to rise an average of just 2 percent per year between
2003 and 2008. The median price of housing in Ama-
dor County is forecast to remain below the statewide
median price.
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020
Wage and Salary Job Creation
1990 - 2020
jobs
Real Per Capita Personal Income
Amador County and California
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
1980 - 2020
2002 dollars
per person
California
Amador
County
forecast
2
Amador County Economic Forecast
1995-2002 History, 2003-2020 Forecast
Real Per Farm
July Net Registered New Homes Retail Personal Capita Crop Industrial
Population Migration Vehicles Households Permitted Sales Income Income Value Production
(people) (people) (thousands) (thousands) (homes) (millions) (millions) (dollars) (millions) (millions)
1995 33,400 284 39.3 11.7 186 $178.9 $614.0 $23,407 $16.0 $229.8
1996 33,800 473 40.7 11.9 140 $187.8 $641.4 $23,618 $16.9 $254.5
1997
1997 34,500
34,500 774
774 38.8
38.8 12.0
12.0 118
118 $202.4
$202.4 $646.7
$646.7 $22,555
$22,555 $17.9
$17.9 $258.3
$258.3
1998
1998 34,100
34,100 -302
-302 40.8
40.8 12.1
12.1 157
157 $209.6
$209.6 $687.3
$687.3 $23,505
$23,505 $15.1
$15.1 $246.8
$246.8
1999 34,750 704 42.5 12.2 256 $234.2 $722.1 $23,249 $19.6 $317.7
2000 35,300 665 45.2 12.7 274 $266.1 $804.1 $24,397 $22.7 $342.2
2001
2001 35,750
35,750 608
608 47.8
47.8 12.9
12.9 239
239 $272.8
$272.8 $844.1
$844.1 $23,995
$23,995 $20.7
$20.7 $345.7
$345.7
2002
2002 36,350
36,350 732
732 48.8
48.8 13.2
13.2 308
308 $316.4
$316.4 $893.5
$893.5 $24,580
$24,580 $23.7
$23.7 $325.5
$325.5
2003 36,927 690 49.9 13.3 296 $339.9 $940.0 $24,831 $23.3 $329.0
2004 37,466 650 51.1 13.5 283 $363.0 $989.7 $25,067 $23.8 $340.0
2005
2005 38,054
38,054 697
697 52.5
52.5 13.7
13.7 293
293 $385.4
$385.4 $1,043.2
$1,043.2 $25,310
$25,310 $24.6
$24.6 $350.7
$350.7
2006
2006 38,673
38,673 726
726 53.8
53.8 13.9
13.9 301
301 $407.8
$407.8 $1,100.5
$1,100.5 $25,573
$25,573 $25.5
$25.5 $363.3
$363.3
2007 39,313 746 55.1 14.2 305 $430.6 $1,162.5 $25,896 $26.2 $375.7
2008 39,981 771 56.2 14.4 310 $454.8 $1,231.9 $26,296 $27.1 $382.3
2009
2009 40,670
40,670 790
790 57.3
57.3 14.7
14.7 312
312 $480.6
$480.6 $1,305.7
$1,305.7 $26,703
$26,703 $27.9
$27.9 $392.0
$392.0
2010
2010 41,387
41,387 818
818 58.4
58.4 14.9
14.9 316
316 $509.0
$509.0 $1,387.8
$1,387.8 $27,132
$27,132 $28.8
$28.8 $404.3
$404.3
2011 42,116 831 59.5 15.2 318 $539.3 $1,474.4 $27,542 $29.7 $417.0
2012 42,839 825 60.2 15.5 316 $570.9 $1,561.0 $27,865 $30.5 $428.6
2013
2013 43,545
43,545 812
812 60.8
60.8 15.8
15.8 314
314 $603.6
$603.6 $1,650.7
$1,650.7 $28,162
$28,162 $31.3
$31.3 $438.5
$438.5
2014
2014 44,237
44,237 802
802 61.5
61.5 16.1
16.1 312
312 $628.4
$628.4 $1,742.7
$1,742.7 $28,478
$28,478 $32.1
$32.1 $449.2
$449.2
2015 44,937 814 62.1 16.3 315 $656.8 $1,839.7 $28,807 $33.0 $456.7
2016 45,646 829 62.7 16.6 318 $692.7 $1,942.2 $29,118 $34.0 $464.0
2017
2017 46,346
46,346 824
824 63.2
63.2 16.9
16.9 316
316 $726.0
$726.0 $2,047.7
$2,047.7 $29,372
$29,372 $34.9
$34.9 $471.3
$471.3
2018
2018 47,038
47,038 826
826 63.7
63.7 17.2
17.2 315
315 $766.5
$766.5 $2,162.1
$2,162.1 $29,715
$29,715 $35.9
$35.9 $482.6
$482.6
2019 47,743 847 64.1 17.5 318 $804.7 $2,287.6 $30,149 $36.9 $494.5
2020 48,453 865 64.5 17.7 321 $838.1 $2,416.5 $30,575 $38.0 $508.4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
Population Growth
1980 - 2020
percent
change
-600
-300
0
300
600
900
1,200
1,500
1,800
2,100
2,400
2,700
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
Net Migration
1980 - 2020
inmigrants
minus
outmigrants
3
Amador County Economic Forecast
Wholesale, Finance,
Total Mining & Transportation, Retail Real
Wage & Salary Farm Construction Manufacturing Utilities Trade Estate Services Government
-----------------------------------------------employment (jobs)-----------------------------------------------
9,546 212 279 1,112 431 2,280 332 2,086 2,815
9,881 254 308 1,162 428 2,294 355 2,119 2,961
9,986
9,986 255
255 316
316 1,037
1,037 417
417 2,383
2,383 330
330 2,177
2,177 3,072
3,072
10,262
10,262 238
238 353
353 873
873 423
423 2,443
2,443 330
330 2,078
2,078 3,523
3,523
10,608 240 410 864 422 2,381 356 2,321 3,614
11,238 260 406 867 415 2,457 358 2,619 3,857
11,872
11,872 300
300 433
433 880
880 415
415 2,523
2,523 347
347 2,668
2,668 4,306
4,306
12,380
12,380 310
310 380
380 860
860 430
430 2,660
2,660 330
330 2,580
2,580 4,830
4,830
12,845 313 376 876 427 2,792 343 2,540 5,178
13,220 318 389 874 426 2,920 357 2,560 5,376
13,613
13,613 325
325 394
394 872
872 426
426 3,043
3,043 370
370 2,620
2,620 5,564
5,564
14,049
14,049 332
332 404
404 872
872 427
427 3,160
3,160 383
383 2,712
2,712 5,760
5,760
14,551 338 411 864 429 3,272 397 2,821 6,020
15,015 345 415 864 432 3,381 411 2,939 6,230
15,519
15,519 351
351 418
418 855
855 435
435 3,488
3,488 424
424 3,067
3,067 6,480
6,480
16,129
16,129 359
359 421
421 857
857 438
438 3,596
3,596 436
436 3,203
3,203 6,820
6,820
16,704 366 424 860 442 3,705 446 3,341 7,120
17,302 373 426 865 446 3,814 455 3,474 7,450
17,879
17,879 379
379 427
427 870
870 450
450 3,922
3,922 463
463 3,598
3,598 7,770
7,770
18,338
18,338 386
386 428
428 876
876 453
453 4,029
4,029 471
471 3,715
3,715 7,980
7,980
18,849 393 430 882 457 4,136 479 3,832 8,240
19,405 402 432 889 460 4,243 487 3,951 8,540
20,003
20,003 409
409 435
435 898
898 463
463 4,349
4,349 496
496 4,073
4,073 8,880
8,880
20,509
20,509 417
417 437
437 906
906 467
467 4,456
4,456 505
505 4,201
4,201 9,120
9,120
20,988 426 439 916 471 4,563 515 4,329 9,330
21,376 434 440 924 475 4,674 524 4,455 9,450
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
Real Industrial Production
1985 - 2020
average annual
percent change
Industrial and Farm Production Indices
0
50
100
150
200
250
1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020
1990 - 2020
inflation-
adjusted index
(1990=100)
Industrial
Farm
forecast
4
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
Real Taxable Retail Sales
1980 - 2020
millions of
2002 dollars
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
Total Registered Vehicles
1980 - 2020
thousands of
vehicles
700
800
900
1,000
1,100
1,200
1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020
Employment in Manufacturing
1990 - 2020
jobs
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020
Employment in Services
1990 - 2020
thousands
of jobs
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
New Residential Units
1980 - 2020
units
permitted
Real Earnings per Worker
Amador County and California
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
55,000
60,000
65,000
1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020
1990 - 2020
2002 dollars
per worker
California
Amador County
forecast